posted 04-12-2001 06:06 PM            

I was very surprised by this week's vote. But I gotta agree, if XXX (just in case Quetee looks) is so dumb they couldn't see their way out of it, they deserve to go.

posted 04-12-2001 06:58 PM            

well the only dumb person now is amber so im guessing she got the boot. even though she isnt whom i picked on my pool.

quote:

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Originally posted by cmclippe:
Laying in a puddle of his own waste, in an Outback camp. You'd think with Colby's past history with alcohol, they'd think twice before picking him to hawk Bud Lite in a SURVIVOR product placement. And you'd think Colby, after witnessing last week's toilet situation, would think twice before gorging himself on beans and corse bread.

I was very surprised by this week's vote. But I gotta agree, if XXX (just in case Quetee looks) is so dumb they couldn't see their way out of it, they deserve to go.

Next week, it looks like they're targeting XXX, which makes me suspicious. So I'm gonna predict XXX is gonna go.

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posted 04-12-2001 08:17 PM            

And anyone who said "Tina is the swing vote" kinda looks like a genius.

Yeah, I predicted a final three of Tina, Keith and Amber, but if you had told me Colby would win tonight's immunity challenge, I would have changed that to a final three of Tina, Keith and...Rodger?

Great game.

posted 04-12-2001 08:49 PM            

I think Colby's gonna win again next week. As long as Quetee's already read this, I'll go ahead and say Keith's voted out next time. Of course, if by chance Colby doesn't win immunity, then he's sure to go.

P.S.: And Amber was the swing vote. She was either too stupid to use it or Tina outmaneuvered her in the chase to Elis. & Rodger.

By the way, anyone notice how Colby got cut out of the loop? Looks like the new power block is Tina, Keith, Elis. & Rodger.

posted 04-12-2001 09:00 PM            

and yes amber was but like CM says she was too much of a dummy to do something about it.

and CM what do you mean colby got cut out of the loop. believe me that whole thing was a set up. those three are not bowing down now. it didnt matter who cast the vote for amber. they new elizabeth and rodger were gonna do it..... so might as well follow suit.

quote:

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Originally posted by cmclippe:
I did say Colby would win tonight's immunity challenge. But that's about the only thing I got right.

I think Colby's gonna win again next week. As long as Quetee's already read this, I'll go ahead and say Keith's voted out next time. Of course, if by chance Colby doesn't win immunity, then he's sure to go.

P.S.: And Amber was the swing vote. She was either too stupid to use it or Tina outmaneuvered her in the chase to Elis. & Rodger.

By the way, anyone notice how Colby got cut out of the loop? Looks like the new power block is Tina, Keith, Elis. & Rodger.

[This message has been edited by cmclippe (edited 04-12-2001).]

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posted 04-12-2001 09:13 PM            

Maybe we are just using confusing terms..."swing vote" to me means "power vote" or "the one person who can swing the entire vote through their opinion alone".

In that case, Tina is and has clearly been the swing vote for weeks. She ousted Jerri at Elisabeth's request two councils ago. She changed back to her Ogakor alliance last week. And now she switched back to the Tina/Keith, Elisabeth/Rodger power block. Amber could never deliver any vote but her own. Tina could deliver four votes at any time (and she still can).

That, to me, is what a swing vote is. Perhaps I should refer to it as the "power vote", which is more appropriate.

Colby? Shit out of luck. He lives only if he wins immunity. As Tina votes, so votes the tribe.

Your pal,
Couchguy

Oh, the "parties" looked like this...

Evil=Jerri/Amber
Hunky=Colby
Crafty=Tina/Keith
Good=Elisabeth/Rodger/Nick

Tina could deliver ANY of those parties. She killed Jerri by allying with the Good Party.
She killed Nick by allying with the Evil and Hunky Parties.
She killed Amber by flipping back to the Good Party.

And the Hunky Party buys the Texas farm next week, barring immunity...

posted 04-12-2001 09:33 PM            

You're right in that Tina is the power vote... She's been controlling the vote for quite awhile.

But here is my big prediction for the rest of the season. Next week, Colby wins immunity again. Colby and Tina will comes to blows over the vote. Colby will threaten to go to Elis. & Rodger to get Keith. Tina will reluctantly join them.

The final four will be Tina, Colby, Elis. & Rodger. Both Colby and Tina are being groomed as this year's Sue. I'm gonna make a stab in the dark and say Tina will be the first of the four voted off. I only say that cause Colby's just so damn cute.

But he's also the one most likely to keep winning immunity. This week's challenge was as evenly matched as possible. In fact, it should have favored Rodger (who better to man a slingshot than Kentucky Joe?). Colby still won. I think he's unbeatable. And damn cute.

Colby will win the choice between Elis. & Rodger. He will vote Rodger off, and take his chances against Elis. The final vote will be close, with Tina (again, this years Sue) leading a campaign for Elis. over Colby. But Colby will win (again, just cause he's so damn cute). The final vote will be Jerri, Amber and Keith for Colby, Tina, Rodger and Nick for Elis. The winning vote will come from Alicia, who will pick Colby just cause he's so damn cute.

Of course, everything depends on Colby hanging onto immunity each week. I'll have to revise this prediction next week, I'm sure. But that's the way I think it's gonna happen.

posted 04-12-2001 09:45 PM            

If Colby engineers a vote against Keith and ends up sitting against a Kucha, he'll lose handily. Let's say it's Elisabeth, as in your example. Every Kucha will vote for her, and cuteness has nothing to do with it. They've all voted against him once already, remember? They didn't think he was so cute then.

So that's three for Elisabeth off the bat.

And, she'll get Keith and Tina's vote, for turning traitor.

Ever hear the saying "hell hath no fury like a woman scorned?" Look for Amber and Jerri to vote for Elisabeth, too.

If Colby is so collossally (it's a word when I use it, even if I misspell it) stupid as to leave himself with Elisabeth, he won't get a single vote. She'll win it 7-0.

Because she's so damned cute.

posted 04-12-2001 09:56 PM            

If Jerri didn't lose her all-consumming love for Colby after the way he treated her after the tribes merged, she'll never let go. Plus, Colby has Amber's vote as he didn't vote against her.

Even if Colby leads the vote against Keith, Keith will vote for Colby to win... Simply because he played the game much better than Elis. Let's face it, Elis. didn't play strategy until very late in the game, and then, her only strategy was to play weak and defenseless victim and beg Tina's pity. On the other hand, Elis. missed excellent opportunites to spearhead strategy (for example, allying with Jerri against Ogakor, ally with Amber the last two weeks). Instead, Elis. is surviving on Tina's mercy.

Tina's plan is to get to the final two with Elis. or Rodger... Simply on this premise. Tina's been an active and controlling player and her strategy has been unbeatable. Elis. & Rodger are doing nothing but allowing Tina to control them. The other players know this, and will vote accordingly.

Finally, there's no way Jerri's gonna vote for Elis. Remember, Elis. saved her ass by sacrificing Jerri. A woman scorned is one thing... But women rarely forget or forgive another woman.

posted 04-13-2001 06:07 AM            

quote:

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Originally posted by cmclippe:
Laying in a puddle of his own waste, in an Outback camp. You'd think with Colby's past history with alcohol, they'd think twice before picking him to hawk Bud Lite in a SURVIVOR product placement.

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I have not been keeping up--what is Colby's history with alcohol??

posted 04-13-2001 07:02 AM            

quote:

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Originally posted by Rigmutt:
I have not been keeping up--what is Colby's history with alcohol??

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Colby was found passed out face down in a puddle of vomit beside an ATM machine last year. He was also arrested for something to do with drag the year before. The police reports are now on the web. Go here to find them: http://www.sirlinksalot.net/colbydonaldson.html

Then, go here to see photos from Colby's early male-modeling career... Before he waxed off his chest hair: http://colbydonaldson.gq.nu/images.html

Hey, couchguy, reviewing the threads, you seem to have it out for our pretty little party boy... But he's the Lone Star state's favorite son right now. As a Texan yourself, I'm wondering why.

posted 04-13-2001 08:11 AM            

I don't "have it out" for Colby...I just don't think he has a chance to win, and haven't from the start. His maneuver to take out Mitchell instead of Keith told me that he's willing to backstab an alliance for his own ends. So at the merge, instead of a solid Jerri/Amber/Mitchell/Colby alliance, he had a Jerri/Amber, Tina/Keith, Colby non-alliance, and it has cost his tribe.

Perhaps he saw that in a Jerri/Amber/Mitchell/Colby alliance, he'd be a target--he may have forged a secret alliance with Tina on the way to tribal council (remember Tina's speech when voting for Mitchell? "On the way to tribal council, a new plan was hatched...") that said "Hey, you stick with me and I'll stick with you until the end."

So maybe I'm off base in thinking Colby is the next to go...he may have a secret pact with Tina that we don't know about. If so, look for Rodger or Elisabeth to go next. Why not Keith? Because Colby loses a 2-2 vote against either Rodger or Elisabeth, so he needs Keith's vote. If he kills Keith, he kills himself.

All that said, I don't think there is a secret Tina/Colby alliance. It's possible, but not probable. I still think Colby is the next to go...the first time he doesn't win immunity. Which might be never.

posted 04-13-2001 08:36 AM            

We're beginning to see new alliances form and change from week to week. We've already seen Ogakor turn on Jerri and now Amber.

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that Tina wants to be in the final two with Elis. or Rodger BECAUSE they are weak. Neither Tina, Colby or Keith wants to be in the final two with a former Ogakor member, because they are too evenly matched. How do you pick between Colby and Tina, for example?
Who's the better player?

We're judging the game on the emotional presentation given by CBS. They're in the field, where that emotional bias may be completely different and unimportant. Elis. & Rodger are the two players who've contributed nothing to the game, and have only survived on the good graces of Tina, Colby and Keith. Ask yourself why? Did Tina rescue Elis. & Rodger simply because she felt sorry for them? Or because it made her look "good" to the jury while keeping two player around who are no threat?